Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Pre-2nd Debate Quick Hits

What Romney Needs to Do

  • Keep the momentum going.  To do this he needs to respond to voter's questions succinctly, with facts and details.  He needs to show that he empathizes with the common voter.  
  • Be Presidential.  Continue to show himself as a viable alternative.  
  • Keep the focus on Obama.  Obama is the one with the record and he needs to be pushed to defend that record.  Romney needs to keep the focus on high unemployment, a slow recovery, and the confusion in the middle east.

What Obama Needs to Do

  • Stop the bleeding.  He needs to show people he actually desires to have a second term.  In the first debate he came off as apathetic, and can't repeat that performance.
  • Be aggressive, but do not bully.  People like Obama, which is something he has going for him.  What he doesn't have going for him is his record, so he needs to keep Romney on the defensive by being aggressive.  Keep this argument about Romney so people don't think too long about the economy or the middle east, especially the chaos around Libya.

What I Expect from Romney

  • I expect Romney to repeat his first performance.  He will attempt to be steady, and keep the debate about Obama's record.  
  • Romney will be cordial but assertive.  He'll continue to lay out his plan (expect to see him count his policies on his fingers, a la 'point 1', or 'first we'll do this, then we'll do that' comments). 

What I expect from Obama

  • I expect Obama to dance the line between aggressiveness and bullying.  He'll keep his head up and look at Romney.  Two things he did not do in the first debate.
  • President Obama would prefer to talk about Romney than himself.  He has grand visions, but his 4 years in office hasn't provided the strongest platform to run on.  He will bring up Bain, the 47% remark, the $5 Trillion in new taxes he says Romney will levy, and maybe even Romney's mistakes on his overseas trip.  He'll attempt to hit Romney early and often.
Who is going to Win?
  • Unless something happens I don't expect, such as Biden being belligerent, I don't think anyone will come out of this a 'winner'.  Certainly nothing as decisive as the first debate.  Conservatives love to believe that Obama is lost without his teleprompter.  While that may be true, it shouldn't manifest itself in a town hall format debate.  He'll have time to respond to people, he'll be able to use his body language because he'll be able to walk around, he will look cool calm and collected.  If he were being questioned by a panel of conservatives I'd expect something different, but he should handle himself ok.  Romney should be steady, and I expect the same man we saw two weeks ago.  He does a good job defending his record, and he has a good 'debate face.'  I'd be surprised if he were caught on camera making any of the facial expressions Joe Biden was caught making.
  • I'm more interested in the post-debate discussion.  How is the press going to react?  They were obviously stunned and distraught over Obama's last performance, so how will they react to this debate?  If Obama performs sub-par, will they report it as sub-par or will they pass it off as a miraculous comeback?  If Romney stumbles even slightly, will they exaggerate his missteps?  If Obama has a clear decisive victory will they be able to report it as such without going overboard?  If not will their gloating come across to the viewer and if so, will the viewer react to that negatively?  And if Romney wins, will they be able to report that or will they attempt to temper 'Romney-enthusiasm'?

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