Saturday, October 6, 2012

My Plan for Job Growth

Jobs come from business.  The easiest way to ensure your job is safe is for your employer to do well.  If your employer is doing well, and you're not spending your entire day on Facebook, then you've got a pretty good chance of maintaining employment.

I'd like to believe that statement would be self-explanatory, but with the recent rash of government sponsored programs aimed at increasing employment obviously it isn't understood as well as it should be.  Sure you can print off an $800 Billion stimulus, but even if you manage to create a million jobs all those people will have to be fired once the $800 Billion runs out (at which point you'll have all that new debt to contend with as well).  The only way to stay employed is to be employed by someone who is generating wealth, as they are the only ones who can afford to keep paying you with new money.

If I may I'd like to share what I think are four points which, if followed, would lead to massive job creation in the United States.  I'll also assign an advantage after each point to the candidate I believe is positioned best to take advantage of each point.

Business-people like to make decisions based on information, but information isn't any good if it changes every five minutes.  This is why my first two points are based upon injecting stability into the economy.

Pass a Freakin' Budget!!
Congress hasn't passed a budget since 2009.  A budget is mostly symbolic as the absence of one doesn't mean the lights in the government go dark (unfortunately).  It would be easy to blame President Obama for this oversight (don't we blame Presidents for everything these days), but he isn't entirely at fault.  Congress is tasked with passing the budget.  While the President can (should?) set the country's direction, he can't just pass a budget by himself.  It might be a sign of a leadership void, but it's really the fault of Congress that we haven't had a new budget since 2009.

Passing a budget would send a message to the world that we're not just aimlessly wandering in the dark when it comes to our finances.  It would mean that yes, we realize we're spending too much, but at the same time signal that we take it seriously and are working to correct it.  Right now there is no reason for any businessperson to think the US government is going to do anything but continue to turn a blind eye to our coming economic apocalypse.  Businesspeople would love to see a sign that Federal Government isn't completely absent.  

Advantage: Romney
Fair or not, only one budget has passed during Obama's presidency and he gets the blame for failure to lead.  He was nearly the only president to ever go four years without passing a single budget.  The fact that the last time one was passed was when the Democrats controlled Congress and the Executive Branch is an indictment of his leadership.  Considering that Romney was able to get Romneycare through the Mass legislature when it was comprised of mostly Democrats is a reason to want to see him try on the Federal level.

Reduce the Federal Deficit
Do you currently have a job?  Awesome.  In five - ten years you won't.  Or at least half of us won't.  The deficit (and resulting Debt in total) is the single biggest threat to America right now, and a huge reason Businesses aren't currently hiring.  

Suppose for a minute that you make $100,000 a year.  Two years ago you not only spent all $100K, but spent an additional $75,000 on credit cards.  One year ago you spent $70,000 on credit cards, and last year you spent $60,000.  In fact, you've been doing this for so long that you currently owe more than $800,000 in credit card debt.  How long do you think it'll take before the banks come and take all your possessions to collect?

The US is in a very similar situation.  The only difference is we are the bank's biggest customer, so they can't come collect right now, at least not easily.  As the US economy goes, so goes the world economy.  As a result we have had the freedom to go on a spending binge the last 12 years.  President Bush added $4 Trillion in debt over his 8 years, and Obama more than doubled down on that with more than $5 Trillion in 4 years.  The Federal Government works on $2 Trillion in revenue, but has been spending over $3 Trillion for the last four years.

The world is currently working to replace the dollar as the reserve currency.  China is looking to other markets in India and the Middle East to replace their markets in the US.  China wants to stop lending us money to feed our debt without losing their #1 market, something they currently can't do.  It isn't a question of if the world will adapt to live without the dollar, it's a question of when.  And when that happens, we can expect a major decline in the value of the dollar.  Even without the world replacing the dollar, it is only a matter of time before inflation and interest rates go up to previously unseen levels.  We can't just print $5 Trillion without severe consequences.  Think Germany before Hitler.

This is a very, very bad thing and people aren't thinking about it enough.  It is perhaps the #1 reason not to vote for Obama (whoops, does that give away who my 'Advantage' on this one is going to?).  Some economists are even predicting 50% unemployment not even two years out.  This is scary stuff.

But it can be reversed.  If you balance the budget, not only does it strengthen the dollar on the world market, (thus removing the threat it'll be dumped as the standard) but it'll signal to business that it is a good time to start expanding.  It'll be a sign to business that you're not considering upping their taxes, that you're not going to keep fining them when they don't provide health insurance for their employees, that they don't have to worry about costs creeping up that'll affect their bottom line.  

Balancing the budget would strengthen the appeal of the United States at a time when Europe is unraveling.  The Euro is on the brink of collapse, and countries like Greece and Spain are actively punishing success.  You want to see a glut of new job creation?  Hold up a sign that says "The #1 economy in the world is STABLE!" and wait to see what happens when every single business in the world looks at the US and says, "I want to do business there, where I know I won't incur costs based on the whims of politicians."

Advantage: Romney
President Obama has added an almost impossible to grasp amount of money to the debt.  Not only has he added $5 Trillion in real debt, he's added another $10 Trillion in unfunded liabilities (like Obamacare).  He promised to cut the debt in half, but instead he doubled it.  While Romney hasn't added to it or reduced it, he maintains the advantage here mainly because when you see someone fail like President Obama has, you need to replace them.

Reduce the Corporate Tax Rate
If you can reduce the federal deficit, this is the icing on the cake.  The worlds #1 economy being stable already gets attention, but if you reduce the Corporate Tax Rate (something both candidates are fans of), it'll encourage an influx in jobs here as companies begin to relocate.  This is the easiest point to explain, there's not much more to say about it than that.

Advantage: Obama
They both pick 25% as the sweet spot.  Obama gets the advantage because he's actually in office (though one wonders why he hasn't already done this, if he believes in it so much).

Become Energy Independent
Becoming Energy Independent is on every one's mind, but both parties offer distinctly different paths.  President Obama wants to become independent by funding Green energy initiatives and restricting coal/natural gas/oil.  Governor Romney wants to build the Canadian pipeline, and open up oil/natural gas drilling on public lands.

Lets be honest: both plans have their pluses and minuses.  Perhaps the only person who doesn't want to see us get more responsible with our energy consumption is Rush Limbaugh.  Outside of him, the majority of us can agree we want to move in the direction of using more Green energy.

However you cannot force the issue.  You can encourage it, but if the science isn't there, it isn't there.  And right now, it isn't there.  So we have two options:

Democrats want to restrict our current consumption of fossil fuels by cancelling refineries, refusing to build a Canadian pipeline, raising taxes on fuel consumption, and place fuel standards on cars that make both gas and cars more expensive.  At the same time, they wish to encourage Green energy not just by giving tax breaks for people moving to those technologies, but also by providing billions in subsidies.

Republicans wish to transition to Green energy as well, but on a course they would call 'natural' rather than forced.  Instead of restricting current consumption of fossil fuels, they want to make those resources cheaper while simultaneously encouraging the migration to Green tech through tax breaks.  They wish to open up drilling on public lands (which has been restricted by the President), and build the Canadian pipeline so we can use more Canadian oil as opposed to Brazilian or from the Middle East.  Migration to Green tech would be the result of tax credits, but not subsidies.  The benefit to that would be jobs created in the fossil industry would be maintained by the funds generated by the sale of those goods, whereas the jobs created in the Green industry would evaporate when the subsidy money ran out.  

Advantage:  Romney
Romney's support of drilling on public land alone would give him the advantage here (as far as job creation is concerned), but his support of the Canadian pipeline and additional refineries puts him way over the top.  Not only would they generate long term employment, but they'd make us more energy independent, which is a necessary defense initiative at a time the Middle East looks to be unstable.

Conclusion
Obviously there are other ways to create employment, but I chose four ways I thought would be most successful and at the same time exemplified major differences between the campaigns.  For instance you could also stimulate employment by repealing Obamacare (companies such as Cook Medical have already cancelled plans to build manufacturing plants here because of added costs from Obamacare).

In the end Romney gives us the best chance to not only foster employment, but to tap into a seldom discussed resource:  It is estimated that US company's are sitting on $2 Trillion in liquid assets just waiting to inject that into a stable market.  Imagine getting the benefit of a $2 Trillion stimulus package without having to fight the debt later.  That would be a major boon for our country at a time when the rest of the developed world is floundering.   



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