Predictions

TWO QUICK THINGS

1) The Washington Redskins lost last night, which if history holds means our next president with be Senator Obama.

2) I am not normally one to speak in hyperbole or gross exaggerations when it comes to discussing the candidates. I'm not like Matt Damon, who is 'frightened' at the thought of a VP Sarah Palin. I'm not going to say it'd be disastrous if Senator Obama won, or that I'd move out of the country. I wouldn't even call the Senator dangerous. Though there is one thing I am very concerned about, and would come close to violating my own policy on, and that is Senator Obama's interpretation of the Constitution.

When Senator Obama was being interviewed about the Civil Rights movement, he said a failure of the movement was not establishing a system to redistribute the wealth from the wealthy to the needy. I mentioned this in my last post, but he went further in saying that the great failure of the Constitution was to limit the power of the Federal government, and he was disappointed that the Supreme Court didn't do anything to change that policy.

The reason that is so disconcerning to me is that the Constitution's primary focus was to limit the power of the Federal Government. In fact the first draft of the Constitution, the Articles of Confederation, established such a weak federal power that the document ended up failing. The Founders would have rather failed in their first attempt by creating a powerless government than to err on the other side and create an overly powerful one.

After the Constitution was ratified, they began immediate work on the Bill of Rights. The Bill of Rights were designed to further ensure that the government didn't have certain power over us, and in very specific ways. This wasn't by accident, it was very purposeful. Some of the Founders even threatened to vote against ratifying the Constitution because it didn't provide enough protection from the federal government. As a result of the Bill of Rights, we enjoy the right of free speech, the right to bear arms, the right to assemble, etc. The primary ingredient for those rights to exist isthe specific removal of all federal power. In fact, the Founders set up our system of government as a way to remove government from our lives and ensure that the power it did retain was extremely limited. That was the design of the Articles of Confederation, the Constitution and the Bill of Rights.

So I am very concerned that a man is running for the highest office in the land while holding contempt for the very purpose of our founding document. Either Senator Obama doesn't understand that the Founders wanted to establish a system of government that was limited in nature, or he doesn't care. I would prefer that he be oblivious, but I don't think Senator Obama is a moron. I think he knows exactly what he is saying when he says that the Constitution failed when it limited the power of the Federal government. And that concerns me more than just about any other of his positions (except possibly his radical position on abortion). It is now possible that the United States might find a man in the Oval Office who finds our very Constitution as one of his established enemies, and that should make anyone who is even the slightest bit conservative very nervous.



Now on to my predictions for....



AN OBAMA VICTORY

Economy -

With an Obama victory, the stock market will experience a quick dip. Obama's policy of taxing corporations higher and raising the capital gains tax will make the stock market less attractive for investors. As a result, if Obama wins I would expect a 400 point dip in the stock market the day after. This might be tough to discern, since it is trending downwards already. Additionally, a good many people much smarter than myself have suggested the market is already continuing its downward spiral because of an anticipation of an Obama victory, but that is hard to prove. In any regard, this will only be a temporary decline as people will continue to invest in the market anyways. After a while, the stock market will climb as people re-invest, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an initial dip.

I don't think we'll see the Obama tax cuts as he has promised. At least, he won't be raising taxes on those he has indicated he will. Not until the economy has recovered. I would imagine his advisers would tell him that it would have a negative affect on the economy, and as a result I'd expect him to cut taxes on the 'poor' but not let the Bush tax cuts expire until the economy starts to recover a little.

He won't be able to implement his entire economic plan, at least not for the first couple of years of his term. To do so would be economic suicide, and I don't think he'll do that. If he does, I would expect the economic situation to worsen before his term is up.

I would also expect the Democrats to pass another stimulus package, to the tune of $200-$300 Billion. I don't think it will do much to stimulate the economy more than the current one, but they would want to be in the position to claim leadership on the economic situation.

By the end of his four year term, I see little to no improvement in the economy if his plan is implemented. Corporations, now being charged 10% more in the U.S. than in other countries, will continue their migration out of the U.S. We'll lose more jobs, as Obama's plan to force small business to pay for health insurance, higher taxation, and generally more hostile business policies will keep the market stagnant. No one will have an interest in expanding their business, as doing so will only result in more taxes. Of course, that is if he actually implements his campaign promises, which I doubt he will.

Foreign Policy

Israel will get serious about Iran. With only two months remaining in the very pro-Israel Bush Administration and Obama being a little vague on his support for Israel (especially in case of a war with Iran), Israel might be interested in attacking Iran while a pro-Israel president is in the Oval Office. This might be the 'international disaster' Biden guaranteed with an Obama presidency, because Israel will have a very serious problem in not knowing where Obama stands, especially after his statements about Iran being 'tiny', 'not dangerous', and his willingness to hold talks with them. Will Israel be willing to risk attacking Iran at a time when they can't be sure of United States support? I doubt it, I would think Israel would accelerate their plans while Bush is still in office.

The world at large will celebrate the victory as the United States finally wising up. This will last until the first trouble in the Middle East, during which Obama will either alienate the world by placating the wishes of those at home, or vice versa. Senator Biden did say that the U.S. wouldn't be satisfied with Obama's response to the first crisis he encounters, so perhaps that is an indication that Obama would placate the world and risk alienating voters at home. At any rate, Americans don't view the world the same way as Europeans, so Obama will have to make a decision as to which body of people he wants to satisfy.

Since Obama is perceived as being so weak on Foreign Policy, I would expect him to call some sort of international meeting of world leaders, something like a summit. In the very least, he will arrange to address the U.N. within the first 5 months of his taking office.

I would imagine nothing on the Iraq front will change. Because the success of the Surge has enabled the military to draw down troop levels with the support of the Iraqi government (current troop numbers are already at pre-Surge levels), he won't have that issue to tackle. He'll be able to satisfy the wishes of his base and those of conservatives at the same time by just maintaining the status quo.


I think Russia will be more aggressive, much more aggressive. Considering Obama's pretty weak reaction to Russian aggression into Georgia, and Russian movements toward re solidifying their previous federation, I see Putin salivating at the thought of an Obama presidency. If Obama is elected, expect Russian movements into more of their former states, like Ukraine and Georgia. They have already been aggressive on the world stage, but expect that to accelerate if Obama is elected.

Domestic Policy

The Fairness Doctrine will be re-introduced, and with a super majority in the Senate and control of the House and Oval Office, it might pass. The Fairness Doctrine states that no matter what the media, they must give equal time to opposing viewpoints. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has already discussed implementing this. Naturally, as someone who supports the free market of ideas, I would be against the Fairness Doctrine. With an Obama administration, I would expect the issue to be re-introduced.

Obama will resume public financing for abortions, and will resume international funding for abortions.


If Obama is serious about bankrupting the Coal industry like he promised, then expect electric prices to skyrocket. We won't start producing any more of our own Oil under an Obama presidency, so expect gas prices to continue their climb next summer. Perhaps when prices continue to rise he'll reconsider due to public encouragement. Since Obama's energy plan consists of 'fast tracking' alternative fuels and I don't believe you can fast track something that doesn't exist, I would expect no progress to be made on that front during his presidency (especially if he is here for one term). At least no more progress than already would be made in a free market anyways.

Obama will elect liberal judges, and depending on the composition of the Senate this will either be a serious problem for Obama or the Democrats will confirm his nominations with ease. I would expect his judges to add to the current crop of those who legislate from the bench, since he has indicated his desire to nominate those who would tend to perform that way.

Odds of being Re-elected

I would imagine Obama will be moderately popular at the end of his term, depending on which of his promises he keeps and which he does not. Since I disagree with the odds of his economic policies being more than moderately successful, I cannot imagine him actually following through with them. If he does, his term will be quick but painful, much like Jimmy Carter's. Jimmy Carter had much the same policies as Barack Obama (taxing the rich at a much higher rate, higher capital gains tax), and by the time he left office interest rates were in the 20s, inflation was in the teens, and the economy lost millions of jobs.

If Senator Obama deals with his first foreign policy disaster well, I don't think he'll suffer from the ill affects of a failure on that front. I'm not sure how he will react to a disaster like Israel bombing Iran, though I'm sure his first act will be to convene a summit about it. I am a proponent of diplomacy, but we all need to keep in mind that appeasement is only diplomacy taken one step too far. Those who appease are really only those who don't know when to call off diplomacy. I am not sure which kind of leader Obama will be since he has no specific foreign policy experience or record, but if he is too much Neville Chamberlain and not enough Winston Churchill, he might suffer in the public mind much like President Carter did.

Senator Obama is promising so much through his campaign that honestly I don't see how his presidency would be anything more than a failure. He has the middle class believing that he is going to give them more, the upper class believing that he is going to take more, all the while trying to convince both that somehow that policy will result in more job creation and an expanded economy. I don't see that happening.

Overall, I think Obama's re-election depends primarily on whether he follows through on his campaign promises. If he does, he will be a one term president. If he does not, he has hopes of being re-elected.

And now my predictions for......

A MCCAIN PRESIDENCY

Economy

McCain has admitted that he doesn't know much about how the economy works, and as a result his success on this issue largely depends on who he has advising him. That said, if McCain wins the nomination I would expect a modest jump in the stock market in reaction to his pro-investment policies of lower capital gains taxes and pro-growth policies of less taxation in gerneral.

To prove his worth on economic issues, McCain will try and put together another bipartisan stimulus package if the economy isn't better by summer 09.

McCain will follow through with his tax policies, which really amount to lower taxes on corporations and capital gains (investments). I see this helping the economy recover faster, but of course that is purely subjective and impossible to prove. I think if we could compare the economy after a year under Obama and McCain, the economy would improve 6 months faster under McCain than Obama.

At the end of his four year term, I see more economic growth under McCain than Obama. It would be impossible to actually compare, as only one of them will actually be elected, but McCain's plan favors economic growth so I would expect more growth under it than Obama's.

Foreign Policy

McCain has more foreign policy experience, and his presence in the Oval Office will command a different amount of respect than Obama's. I wouldn't expect Russia or Iran to test McCain as much as they would Obama. We still might see Israel bombing Iran, but knowing they still have an ally in the White House would stay Israel's hand for a longer time period, thus allowing for more diplomatic relations.

Iraq will be handled the same as Obama would handle it, but if a hiccup comes along McCain will be much better suited for it than Obama. McCain's position on the Surge, when it was unpopular, was the correct one. I'd have a lot more confidence in his adjusting to a battlefield change than Obama's.

McCain will try to prove he is different from President Bush by being more active in foreign relations. I would expect him to visit foreign countries pretty soon after his term begins, but probably not as quickly as Obama. His goal, unlike Obama, won't be to prove his worth in foreign policy areas, but rather to prove how different he is than President Bush. However, McCain's first allegiance is the this country, so I believe he won't try and cater to the world population like Obama does. You'd never see McCain giving a speech to 200,000 people in Berlin talking about international healing. He would rather give a speech about kicking someone's ass, which would be both good and bad. But I don't think he'll take that route. While he will seek their approval, he will in the end do what he thinks is best for this country, and will always speak in those terms.

Russia won't be as big of a problem under McCain as they would under Obama. With an Obama victory, Russia will be more willing to test his resolve. Under McCain, they wouldn't be so bold. While I believe in the long run Russia has imperialistic desires, I don't see them challenging McCain the way they would challenge Obama. They might wait until after McCain leaves office, or wait until his attention is on some other crisis.

Domestic Policy

McCain will seek bipartisan relations within Congress to a degree President Bush wouldn't have. He will encourage legislation that will anger conservatives, like more immigration and campaign finance laws.

His judges will have a strict interpretation of the Constitution, and won't tend to legislate from the bench. I don't think he would go as far as nominating only judges who would over turn Roe v. Wade, but would more stick towards the middle, moderate routes he is familiar with.

There won't be as many changes Domestically under McCain as there would be under Obama, and not just because McCain is a moderate conservative like President Bush. More so because Senator Obama is just so liberal. On the energy front, McCain will push for more oil drilling while supporting alternative fuels. Gas prices will rise at a slower pace than under Obama, though of course that is impossible to substantiate. As a result of increased drilling, more jobs will be created and more wealth will be created. That will be a large boom for the economy, as will his desire to create more nuclear power plants.

Odds of being Re-Elected

I don't believe McCain has as good of odds at being re-elected. Unless things are vastly improved by the end of his term, I don't see the American public re-electing him. Either candidate is going to have a very difficult time, and I don't see them having crazy amounts of success on the economic front. I think by the time McCain's term is over, we will only just be beginning to see the benifits of his economic policies. While I think McCain would have more success than Obama would, I don't know if it would be enough for him to be able to justify his re-election. Much more likely, in my mind, is the succession of Governor Palin. If McCain's presidency is successful, and he opts out of running again (which is always a possibility), then it would be easier in my mind for Governor Palin to get elected than it would be for McCain to get re-elected. I would wager that Governor Palin would have as good a chance at getting elected in 2012 as Senator Obama would have at being re-elected.

Those are my predictions. What are yours?